Monday, 14 January 2019
My heart aches for my Motherland (and my adopted land)
Unless British Prime Minister opts for yet another delay, the U.K. Parliament's House of Commons will vote on Jan 15th 2019 on her proposals for the withdrawal of the U.K. from the European Union.
Her proposals are the least worst, (The worst being a no deal and unilateral exit.)
It is unlikely that her plan will be approved by Parliament.
* Hard line Tory Brexiteers will have none of it.
* Northern Ireland "Unionist" M.P.'s (Protestant to the core) oppose it because it will enshrine a soft customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, but a hard customs border between North Ireland and the rest of the U.K.
* Scots and Welsh nationalists will have no truck with Brexit.
* Many Labour Party M.P.'s will vote against it because they have always been sceptical about the E.U. They have dreams of a socialist E.U. - highly unlikely as many member States move to the right. The Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has offered no alternative vision to Theresa May's proposals - he comes across as a political technician not as a visionary leader.
I think that Brexit is a terrible idea. Having said that, what do my tea leaves tell me if Prime Minister May's plan get voted down?
Will she resign, and if so, who will the Tory Party elect as her successor as leader? (Most likely a hard-Brexiteer).
Will any new Tory Party leader command a majority in the House of Commons? (Very unlikely).
Will the Queen invite any such new leader to form a Government (that's how it works in the U.K.)
Will there be a second referendum to re-visit the Brexit question? That's extremely unlikely. A second referendum is likely to be more divisive than the first.
Will there be a General Election? Could be, but any new Parliament is as likely to be as divided and fragmented as is the present one. No party is likely to command an overall majority in the House of Commons.
It's all gloom and doom for this British born expatriate. I see no possible good outcome from Tuesday's House of Commons vote.
Maybe the U.K has become ungovernable. Under Trump the same is likely for the U.S.A.
Two of the "Great Powers" of 1945 are transmuting into Banana Republics in 2019.